By Sal Bommarito

Some Republicans are greatly concerned about the dysfunctional primary process.

The contenders for the nomination have not behaved well at all. The amount of trash talking, lies, distortions and name-calling has become a serious concern and has diverted us from important issues. Instead of focusing on the things that affect America, the final four are attacking each other and barely even mentioning Hillary Clinton. Many think this could hurt the party in the general election and for years to come.

What did Republicans expect? Just look at the remaining contenders.

Mitt Romney stated without equivocation that Donald Trump is not fit to serve as president. Some people feel Romney’s assessment was a bit odd considering his performance in 2012, and the fact that he shied away from the 2016 election. But, setting aside any emotional reactions you have towards Romney, he is right in many of his observations.

Trump has not been willing, or able, to articulate how he will deliver the many promises made. He often out-shouts his critics whenever they challenge him thus avoiding details. The plans he has “outlined” for immigration, Mexico, Obamacare, the military, national defense and so much more frequently don’t make sense and don’t add up. Take immigration. He’s says he’s going to essentially round up 11 million undocumented aliens and send them back to their countries of origin. It’s absurd, yet Trump’s groupies believe him. On a related note, Trump says that he will make Mexico pay for a 60-foot wall. One Mexican former Mexican president said his country would not pay for the “f—ing wall.”

The Republican establishment is coming out en masse against Trump; it’s too bad they waited so long. Many congressmen have denounced Trump. Despite this outcry, voters are still flocking to polls to pull Trump’s lever.

Ted Cruz is an eloquent speaker. He has a sharp tongue, which he honed over the years as an attorney. But, he’s made few friends and hasn’t had one Senate colleague endorse his candidacy. Isn’t this a bit disconcerting given that a president must interact with many people to do the job effectively? Most important is that Cruz’s supporters represent mostly one group, the religious right. His perspectives are so conservative that he has little chance to defeat Clinton because Americans want a more moderate approach from their leaders.

Marco Rubio is also a great speaker. With more seasoning, he will be a more viable candidate in the future. But, to this point, his experiences are nowhere near what America needs. The world is far too complex for a one-term senator to parachute into the White House. Additionally, his short tenure has resulted in many flip-flops on critical issues. This tendency could be because of his inexperience or because he says what he must to attract voters. Both disqualify Rubio for president in my mind.

I really like John Kasich. He’s done many things as a public servant. Kasich’s been a congressman deeply engaged in  the national budget controversy and security issues. And now, he’s governor of one of the most important swing states. As governor, he’s distinguished himself as a facilitator uniting the parties and effectively managing Ohio’s financial situation. The only problem is that he is not well known nation-wide.

I would like to suggest seven things to improve our political process. These items will never be adopted in the current environment or ever, probably.

1. All candidates should publish platforms on their website and give detailed information about how promises will be implemented.
2. Voters should demand all candidates be experienced to some extent in government, business and diplomacy.
3. During debates, the principal way Americans get to know the candidates, the participants must abide by the rules including time limits and refraining from interrupting other debaters and moderators.
4. Vulgarity, sexual metaphors and name-calling should be prohibited at all times.
5. Candidates may not lie about each other or inflate their own qualifications.
6. Candidates must discuss all the major issues impacting America and provide substantive insight into their plans to deal with problems.
7. Political ads on TV should be banned. It’s the place where distortions and lies are most prevalent.

These suggestions will never happen, and politicians will continue to twist the truth. I just though I would throw them out because they would dramatically improve the election process and the quality of our political candidates.

 

 

 

By Sal Bommarito

Mitt Romney finally toughened up and did something yesterday that he should have done 3 ½ years ago, he attacked.

Frankly, the whole thing was awkward as Romney is no longer a leader of the Republican Party, especially after his disappointing confrontation with Obama in 2012.

Unfortunately, condemning Trump now is so late in the game that it may, unbelievably, catapult the Donald to the nomination. Every time a celebrity attacks Trump his polling improves.

Mitt said, in so many words, that Trump is a fraud, is inexperienced, is not a great businessman, is really not a conservative and is basically immoral.

Trump’s opponents have been saying this about him for the past several months and continued to do so in last night’s debate. They baited Trump continuously about his business practices and his empty promises; as expected, his response was personal and nasty. He kept calling Rubio “little Marco.” You can decide for yourself what he meant by the comment. Trump continued to call Cruz a liar for some dirty politics that were uncovered earlier in the campaign.

Trump said Romney is a loser, his most ubiquitous response to an attack. But, he also said that Romney “would have dropped to his knees” for his endorsement. Really? Did the front running presidential candidate use such a tasteless metaphor? Yes, he did.

Notwithstanding his lead in the polls and successes in several primaries, many Republicans are asking whether they really want such an uncouth person to be president. Trump speaks in a disrespectful way without any inhibition. Why would he not act similarly with world leaders, in a speech at the United Nations or in a State of the Union address? The man is an egomaniacal wild card. He’s unpredictable especially when someone disagrees with him.

During the debate last night, Trump was asked to give specifics about his grandiose plans to make America great again. Time after time he resorted back to unsubstantiated rhetoric. He’s a master of telling others why they suck at their job, but never offers substantive details to solve problems. Maybe, he doesn’t have any.

How did we get to this place? Is the Republican bench so thin that a person like Trump is the presumptive nominee for president?

Trump has been capitalizing on the frustrations of Republicans. He’s done this masterfully. But, why has the conservative electorate pivoted so drastically? Is his fiery and uncensored rhetoric attractive to Americans? It appears so, and I’m concerned.

Donald Trump is leading the Republican Party down a very dark and dangerous path. The party is crumbling before us because it’s not addressing issues that are important to Americans. Rather it’s becoming more combative internally and with those on the other side of the aisle. Trump isn’t going to be able to reason with the likes of Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, much less Putin and Kim Jong-Il. None of these people are going to wither if Trump bullies them. Diplomacy must precede aggressive action. Trump doesn’t understand the concept.

Some people are sick of the Republican establishment. I’m disgusted with the candidates that the party has offered up in this election cycle.

 

By Sal Bommarito

The biggest news regarding the Republican primaries is the growing discontent of the conservative establishment about  Trump’s success and persona.

Many members of the group believe if Trump wins the nomination, it would negatively impact the party for decades. Many are questioning Trump’s conservative credentials, the specifics of his proposals and his belligerent attitude towards immigrants, women and leaders of his own party.

It’s not exactly clear whether the establishment is more concerned about his ability to defeat Hillary Clinton or the damage he would do if he won the White House, or both. In the meantime, those Republicans that will be running alongside Trump may be collateral damage if the general election is unkind to Trump.

The evidence of a cabal to sabotage Trump is a little sketchy to say the least and has materialized pretty late in the game. The Donald has been shellacking his opponents in the primaries. Cruz and Rubio, strangely enough, were encouraged by their pathetic performances this Tuesday and have indicated they are in the race for the long haul. Exacerbating the situation is a similar attitude of Kasich who has designs on the Ohio primary; he is governor of the state.

The only feasible way to stop Trump is to not allow him to rack up enough delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot of the convention. The current delegate count is:

 

Trump     319

Cruz         226

Rubio       110

Kasich       25

Carson       8

Others       7

 

A nominee must win 1,237 delegates to capture the nomination, out of a possible 2,472. There are 1,777 unallocated delegate remaining, so Trump must win at least 918 more delegates to be the victor going into the convention.

Cruz, Rubio and Kasich must jointly win 861 of the unallocated delegates during the ensuing primaries to prevent a first ballot win for Trump.

There are two winner-take-all states that are critical to the outcome of the primaries; they are Florida (99 delegates) and Ohio (66 delegates). The former is Rubio’s home state, and the latter is Kasich’s home state. It will be virtually impossible to stop Trump if he wins either of these large states.

But, let’s consider the improbable. Supposedly, some large Super Pacs are joining forces, supported by wealthy Republican donors, to do a media blitz against Trump. These efforts could be enough to derail Trump in the coming weeks.

If Trump cannot amass 1,237 delegates before the first ballot at the convention, delegates would generally be free to vote for another person, including someone who has not been active in the primaries.

An interesting person would be Paul Ryan, the Speaker of the House. Of course, the Cruz and Rubio camps would go bananas if such a movement surfaced at the convention.

By Sal Bommarito

The direction of the Republican primary is now abundantly clear. Nevertheless, there could be some landmines down the road for Donald Trump, the front runner.

Trump is doing exceptionally well despite a growing sentiment against him among the Republican establishment.  Trump has denigrated this group of political hacks in his campaign. He’s received tremendous support from voters who want a change from the status quo.

Trump is kicking butt. Yet, he still must contend with some nagging issues. First and foremost, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio have refused to yield to Trump.

Cruz won in Texas, as was expected; it’s his home state. Additionally, he won in conservative Oklahoma. The evangelical candidate now has three primary victories and boasts that he’s the only Republican who can stop the Trump tsunami. The problem is that Cruz has not been as strong as he thought he would be in the conservative southern states; Trump has shown remarkable strength among the religious right. And now, the candidates move north and west where Cruz will find it difficult to be competitive .

Marco Rubio eked out his first primary victory in Minnesota but finished a disappointing third in five out of ten states in play yesterday. He will gain increased support versus Cruz in northern and western states, but is expected to fall far short of Trump in those places. If Rubio doesn’t win in Florida, his home state, on March 15, his campaign is effectively over even if he doesn’t concede.

The staying power and determination of his opponents is frustrating Trump who would like to redirect his venom towards Hillary Clinton. Each concession by other Republican candidates is helpful to him. Most of Cruz’s supporters would likely accrue to Trump if he conceded. A large percentage of Rubio’s more moderate followers would also go to Trump.

Bewildering analysts is the stubborn reactions by Kasich and Carson after their dismal performances in the past few weeks. Kasich is hoping to win in his home state of Ohio on March 15. It’s a winner take all state meaning that the candidate with a plurality gets all the delegates. In any case, a victory in Ohio would not improve Kasich’s chances to win the primary, but it would make him a power broker of sorts. It’s likely that his support would split between Trump and Rubio if he dropped out before the Ohio primary.

Carson’s refusal to concede is absurd. He never had any chance to convince voters that he could govern the country. His impending concession will yield Trump and Cruz most of his support.

The only real risk to Trump is a scenario in which he doesn’t obtain 1,237 delegates (a majority of the total number of delegates) before the convention. He currently has 285 (Cruz has 161 and Rubio has 87). Without a majority, the primary winner would be decided at the convention (referred to as a “brokered convention”). More states are winner take all in the upcoming weeks, which should favor Trump and enable him to attract the requisite delegates.

For you information, if no candidate has a majority of delegates on the first ballot at the convention, it is considered a brokered convention. All regular delegates are free to vote for anyone after the first ballot. The delegates “horse-trade” to find a candidate who can obtain more than 50% of the delegates. How does President Ryan sound?

By Sal Bommarito

Today, I read the first substantive news article relating to the inevitable confrontation between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. Both candidates are far ahead of their primary opponents, so the fur should start to fly very soon as they take aim at each other.

I admit upfront that I’m not a fan of either candidate. My previous opinion pieces about Trump and Clinton have been critical . Frankly, I’m horrified that the next president will be one of them.

The article I referred to earlier was published in the New York Times. It’s mostly about how Hillary’s henchmen will attack Trump. It covers the same territory that Trump’s primary opponents have already visited. The guy is not politically correct. He’s unafraid to speak his mind on any topic, which sometimes is labeled as bigoted, misogynistic or xenophobic. Trump is unsophisticated and vulgar. Blah, blah, blah.

What the Clinton team needs to remember is that Trump’s promise to build a wall to keep out undesirables from the south, assurances that he will not allow Muslims to immigrate to or visit the U.S. and his gruff and aggressive comments towards certain women all seemed to increase his popularity.

Does this mean that many Americans are in favor of his platform? Apparently so. Saying that Trump intends to erect walls (as opposed to building bridges) will have a limited impact on his standing among the voters. And, Trump’s aggressive responses towards anyone including the fairer sex have not hurt him politically.

What really turns me on is the potential for a knockdown, drag out brawl between the Trump and Clinton camps. As an aside, I’m generally not for dirty tricks and political chicanery, but we’re talking about two people who have repeatedly proven that they are ruthless and willing to do anything to get their way. The skeletons in both closets are so significant that maybe Americans might ultimately refuse to vote for either candidate.  Doubtful. Both contenders have a treasure trove of dirt from their past that will be exposed time and again in speeches and TV ads.

Let’s turn the table for a moment. I want to be sure that I give Hillary her due. Although most believe that the Obama administration will ultimately quash the numerous investigations of Clinton’s emails, her foundation, her assistants, etc., I am not so sure. The Justice Department will be unable to sweep all of Hillary’s transgressions under the rug. Too much has already been made public. Ambitious journalists looking to score a Pulitzer are going to dig deep. I think Clinton may ultimately be indicted. In fact, the only way she will be able to avoid prosecution is to win the presidency. If Trump wins, you can be sure his Justice Department will go after her.

How would an indictment affect the general election? Are the supporters of Clinton going to turn a blind eye and vote for her to be president? There must be some amount of bad behavior that disqualifies a Clinton from holding office. Bill’s affairs and perjury while he was president weren’t enough to run him out of office. Maybe an indictment will stop Hillary from moving into the White House.

And while we’re on the subject of Bill Clinton, let’s discuss his demeanor and personal issues. When the Clinton campaign starts to rip Trump apart for making too much money and for questionable business practices, the Donald is going to exhume all the dead bodies in Bill’s past. He’s going to tell us that Hillary and Bill are a team, and she was his co-conspirator in all the shady things Bill did and continues to do today. And, will Bill stay on point and cooperate with the Hillary campaign gurus, or will he freewheel? The odds makers are saying he’s going to go off the grid.

Oh, it’s going to be wild. No stone will remain unturned. The media and the blogs will have a field day when Donald and Hillary start going after each other.

It makes you wonder whether all the entertainment will be worth it. Would our political system and country be better served without either of these candidates? We should be spending at least a few moments discussing what our plans are for the economy, national security, ISIS and health care.