The leaders of Iran are not going to yield to the US so easily. They will stall, misdirect and lie to obtain favorable terms from US negotiators, especially pertaining to nuclear weapons. In fact, they said today that the US demands were “impossible.” Given the devastation of the Iran’s military including its Navy, Air Force and missile program, it does not seem logical for the powers that be to hold out much longer. The country is in dire financial condition. Yet it is incredible that Iran is so aggressive and negotiating as if they held cards in the game. For sure, after the dust settles, Iran will not be an ally of the US.
It’s not clear whether the US negotiators are focusing on the most critically important issue. If all the bombing and name calling enables the US to shut down Iran’s nuclear effort once and for all, the whole Iranian adventure would likely be deemed a success.
A nuclear bomb in the hands of the radical Iranian government is an existential risk for the whole world. If Iran somehow uses a nuclear device on its neighbors in the Middle East, Israel or America, the whole world will be in turmoil, and the resultant bloodshed will be devastating.
As far as Iran rebuilding itself is concerned, it has no hope of recovering militarily, socially or economically for 20 or 50 years. The big question is will the group that eventually leads Iran be peaceful or will Iran become a proxy for radical groups in the Middle East or elsewhere (such as China, Russia and theocratic governments in the in the region)?
Trump’s name calling is useless, unprofessional and is being overused by the US president. Iran has already been destroyed. The US is responsible for the destruction of Iran and the ultimate impact of oil on the world looking ahead. Surely oil nations in the region will try to take advantage of countries that need the fossil fuels.
The most likely outcome will be an Iran with scores of revolutionaries and a deep hatred of the US. That fact could very well inspire US efforts to decrease the usage of fossil fuels in the short term.
It is doubtful that Iran will be able to rebuild its infrastructure and become a self-sustaining country in the foreseeable future. With lower petroleum needs, the world will likely shy away from Iran for at least a generation. Another interesting question is what effect will Iran’s downfall have on the Shia sect of Islam. Will Sunni countries attempt to gain a foot hold as Iran begins to rebuild?
