America has decided. Donald Trump will not be reelected president of the United States. He proved that even in victory (the passage of the tax cut) the man has no humility. We now know he is bad loser and a terrible winner. By 2020 Trump will hopefully complete the task of making over America. Conservative perspectives will dominate politics reinforced by a number of legislative actions.
If the stock market continues its upward trajectory, or even flattens, out over the next three years, investors will be elated, and the 401Ks of many middle class Americans will be at record highs. If the economy is turbocharged as predicted by GOP leaders in response to the new tax cuts, unemployment will remain low and wages will increase.
There are many landmines that could derail Republicans during the coming months. They include war with North Korea and/or Iran, deteriorating relations with China and/or Russia and civil unrest.
Additionally there are countries that could experience other types of strife and even regime changes that could impact the US. The three European powerhouses, Great Britain, France and Germany, are battling serious discord that might spread to other European countries.
Terrorist activity is another issue that could dash prosperity across the globe. In places where civility, comity and peaces subside, anarchy is not far behind. A large terrorist strike in the US would certainly have a devastating effect on all Americans, the world economy and the political landscape.
How will Trump’s departure in 2020 transpire? Unless he is totally delusional, Trump will eventually recognize that he will not be able to win another general election. Even his most ardent supporters will conclude that he does not have the demeanor, temperament, maturity, statesmanship and experience to be president. Most analysts do not believe that his success implementing his agenda will be enough to endear him to a majority of voters.
If Trump resists suggestions that he should retire, conservative challengers will arise. But this time Trump’s opponents will be prepared for his campaign shenanigans and debate tactics. It will not be long before some conservative Republicans begin to make their intentions known- to run for president.
The ideal scenario is for Trump to implement his agenda and pass substantive legislative initiatives for infrastructure, immigration, defense, etc. Republicans, with this in hand should have an easy run to the presidency.
Democrats will not be able to use Trump’s personality as a weapon to advance their candidates. The strongest argument for Democrat rule, Trump sitting in the White House, will be gone.
The mid-term elections are not going to be a mandate against Trump, although Democrats will try to make it so. Local elections are local affairs. If a community likes their congress person they will likely vote for him or her.
As indicated in a earlier post many Democrat senators are up for election in states that Trump carried in 2016. Several of them are very vulnerable, so the Senate is safe. In the House of Representatives it is difficult to supplant incumbents. If congressional ratings increase in 2017, influenced by legislative successes, Republicans will not lose their majority in the House either.
If Trump insists on running in 2020 he’s going to lose, possibly in the primaries. His attitude, tweets and obnoxious personality will cause the electorate to end the president’s reign of terror.