America has decided. Donald Trump will not be reelected president of the United States. He proved that even in victory (the passage of the tax cut) the man has no humility. We now know he is bad loser and a terrible winner. By 2020 Trump will hopefully complete the task of making over America. Conservative perspectives will dominate politics reinforced by a number of legislative actions.

If the stock market continues its upward trajectory, or even flattens, out over the next three years, investors will be elated, and the 401Ks of many middle class Americans will be at record highs. If the economy is turbocharged as predicted by GOP leaders in response to the new tax cuts, unemployment will remain low and wages will increase.

There are many landmines that could derail Republicans during the coming months. They include war with North Korea and/or Iran, deteriorating relations with China and/or Russia and civil unrest.

Additionally there are countries that could experience other types of strife and even regime changes that could impact the US. The three European powerhouses, Great Britain, France and Germany, are battling serious discord that might spread to other European countries.

Terrorist activity is another issue that could dash prosperity across the globe. In places where civility, comity and peaces subside, anarchy is not far behind. A large terrorist strike in the US would certainly have a devastating effect on all Americans, the world economy and the political landscape.

How will Trump’s departure in 2020 transpire? Unless he is totally delusional, Trump will eventually recognize that he will not be able to win another general election. Even his most ardent supporters will conclude that he does not have the demeanor, temperament, maturity, statesmanship and experience to be president. Most analysts do not believe that his success implementing his agenda will be enough to endear him to a majority of voters.

If Trump resists suggestions that he should retire, conservative challengers will arise. But this time Trump’s opponents will be prepared for his campaign shenanigans and debate tactics. It will not be long  before some conservative Republicans begin to make their intentions known- to run for president.

The ideal scenario is for Trump to implement his agenda and pass substantive legislative initiatives for infrastructure, immigration, defense, etc. Republicans, with this in hand should have an easy run to the presidency.

Democrats will not be able to use Trump’s personality as a weapon to  advance their candidates. The strongest argument for Democrat rule, Trump sitting in the White House, will be gone.

The mid-term elections are not going to be a mandate against Trump, although Democrats will try to make it so. Local elections are local affairs. If  a community likes their congress person they will likely vote for him or her.

As indicated in a earlier post many Democrat senators are up for election in states that Trump carried in 2016. Several of them are very vulnerable, so the Senate is safe. In the House of Representatives it is difficult to supplant incumbents. If congressional ratings increase in 2017, influenced by legislative successes, Republicans will not lose their majority in the House either.

If Trump insists on running in 2020 he’s going to lose, possibly in the  primaries. His attitude, tweets and obnoxious personality will cause the electorate to end the president’s reign of terror.

The current state of the sexual abuse controversy is utter chaos. Every day another celebrity is accused of harassing or abusing women. In most cases the alleged abusers were terminated by their employers and ostracized by society. American industry and government must develop a system to deal with these criminals in a fair, orderly and expeditious fashion.

It’s important to remember that none of the men implicated so far has had an opportunity to face accusers, and no terminations have resulted from any legal action. The court of public opinion is playing the role of judge, jury and executioner.

Every chief executive officer in the country is wondering whether one of his employees will be implicated for inappropriate behavior toward women that took place last week, last year or decades ago. And how is he supposed respond to these allegations? By personally judging the accusations, hiring a law firm to investigate them, contacting law enforcement officials or just sweeping situations under the rug and hope they go away?

It’s time for major corporations to take the lead in the debilitating and rapidly expanding war between the sexes. This is sensible because so many crimes occur in a business environment.

A CEO must have the tools to deal with sex crimes of the past and prevent future abuse. Before he can do so, the types of abuse must be defined. Since the possible iterations of abuse are countless, it would be wise to keep the system simple.

For instance crimes could generally be classified as touch and no-touch. The former involves situations in which a man makes physical contact with a woman. This act could be relatively harmless, a touch of the shoulders in conjunction with a handshake, or a more invasive act such as groping or assault.

The CEO could institute policies that prohibit any kind of physical contact between two employees (women with men, women with women, men with men) except for a handshake. An effective policy would result in termination of a violator for any such offense. This would be true zero tolerance.

Regarding no–touch incidents such as making off-color comments and cursing, a violator would receive a warning for the first offense and terminated for a second offense.

None of this would preclude the legal authorities from taking action against a person accused of a sexual abuse crime.

The next major issue involves past versus new crimes. It’s in the best interests of our society to end the hunt for past abusers during the last 30 or 40 years quickly and to focus on protecting women prospectively. This does not mean to say that serious crimes in the past be ignored.

Minor offenses in a corporate environment that occurred decades ago should be considered with a skeptical eye. Major offenses at any time are another story. Corporations should assist law enforcement officers in their attempts to bring serial and aggressive abusers to justice.

Corporations might form ethics committees that would review all allegations of sexual abuse. Once again, they would not represent an actual court of law. Rather they would investigate whether company policies have been violated and mete out punishment accordingly.

These ethics committees ideally would have equal representation by women and men. The group should have both senior management and middle management representation and could involve unions and legal counsel. The actual policies that a CEO institutes would be in conjunction with this committee.

In conversations with others about such a broad strategy to fight sexual abuse, several other concerns have arisen. First, what is the legal liability of the committee that will decide whether a person has violated sexual abuse policies that could result in the termination of an employee? Obviously the group needs to be indemnified. Also a CEO may have issues with making a public statement supported by new policies regarding sexual abuse. Skeptics on the outside may ask why these policies were not implemented sooner. And finally there may be a number of pending situations that are under review from the past. These are risks that CEOs should assume. A public statement would increase the morale of female employees. It would also encourage other CEOs to follow suit.

Congress needs to do a lot of work to define this problem and establish judicial punishment reflecting the severity of every offense. A strong legislative response by Congress coupled with support of business leaders will give this effort a proper launch. What we don’t need is anyone politicizing sexual abuse, disrupting businesses and ruining careers without an ample amount of diligence.

 

A day after the US vetoed a Security Counsel resolution that criticized the US proclamation that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel, and that it would build an embassy in the city, the United Nation’s General Assembly approved an identical non-binding resolution against the US.

The vote, 128-9 for the resolution with 35 abstentions and 21 absent, took place after the president and Nikki Hailey, the US Ambassador to the UN, publicly stated that the UN and nations that supported the resolution may lose  financial support from the US.

In America there is great skepticism about the effectiveness of the UN and the integrity  of its members. And, for years the US has paid for nearly 30% of all UN operating expenses, which excludes the cost of the organization being located in New York City.

Over the years rogue nations and their supporters have used the UN to denounce America. The aforementioned skepticism towards the organization has been wholeheartedly adopted by the Trump administration. The president has indicated that the UN is corrupt and ineffective.

The issue at hand is whether Jerusalem is the capital of Israel and/or Palestine. In 1967 Israel took control of the Holy City and proclaimed it was its capital. This proclamation has been challenged by Palestinian leaders for decades. They say East Jerusalem is Palestine’s capital. Can the city be split to satisfy both countries? So far no progress has been made in this regard.

The capital controversy is an integral part of two-state solution favored by Palestine and acceptable to Israel under certain conditions heretofore unacceptable to Palestinian leaders . Critics of the US say that the latest decisions by the US (to announce that Jerusalem is Israel’s capital and to build an embassy there) are detrimental to the peace process. This of course is absurd given that no progress has made in five decades.

Candidate Trump promised he would move forward with the embassy if elected, as previously prescribed by Congress. Earlier presidents have delayed this decision in an effort to encourage the peace process.

The situation has been inflamed by US threats  to cut off aid to the UN and to members that do not side with  it. This would represent a remarkably aggressive tactic as support for countries like Turkey (a leader of the resolution) and Egypt has been assured by US support . These countries are frequently asked to help decrease tension in the Middle East.

Most disconcerting is the harsh attitude of many UN members towards the US because of its loyalty to Israel. Israel’s existence continues to be a thorn in the side of many Arab countries, all of which supported the resolution. It’s commonly believed that they had no choice other than to do so to avoid being ostracized by other Arab states.

The US is taking a tough stance by doubling down on its backing of Israel interests. Of course Israeli leaders were thrilled by US actions on their behalf.

Trump and Hailey are correct. No other nations should be allowed to dictate US actions relating to Israel or an any country.

Greg Gutfeld, host of The Five, reviewed the accomplishments of the Trump administration yesterday. His sarcastic monologue was not subtle. In spite of very low ratings of the president’s personality and statesmanship, Gutfeld insisted that Americans should feel better about what’s going on in the country.

Here is a list of things that are elating conservatives, not liberals and other Trump haters.

 

• The Dow Jones is moving towards 25,000. It is up more than 25% in 2017. Nasdaq has surged 30% this year and is approaching 7,000. Individual retirement accounts are increasing correspondingly.
• The Gross National Product increased 3.1% in the 2^nd quarter and 3.3% in the 3^rd
• US Consumer Confidence recently hit its highest level in 17 years.
• Wage growth hit 3.4% in October, the highest level since 2008.
• The unemployment rate has dropped to 4.1%.
• Tax reform will be approved today and signed into law by the president. Republicans expect it will be a windfall for businesses and the middle class.
• Illegal entry into the country has declined to its lowest level in years.
• Conservative Justice Neil Gorsuch was appointed to the Supreme Court.
• ISIS has lost almost all of the land it absconded from Syria and Iraq.
• Jerusalem was recognized as the capital of Israel by the US.
• Relations with Saudi Arabia have improved, an important event in the struggle against the rogue regime in Iran.
• The Iran nuclear deal is under great scrutiny and will likely be abrogated.
• The US is building global support to rein in North Korea and its nuclear program.
• Relations with Russia and China are improving despite continuing disagreements in many critical areas.
• James Comey, former FBI head, was fired.
• Unfair and unproductive business regulations have been eliminated.
• The US has become a global energy leader. In the meantime gas prices have remained stable.
• Law enforcement is being celebrated regularly by the administration.
• Trade deals unfavorable for the US will be renegotiated.

 

Trump bashers gave up on him even before he took office. Notwithstanding his brash personality the president is putting together a record that is impressive. It remains to be seen whether some of the items mentioned above will ultimately be good for the country, but Americans are beginning to appreciate the efforts of the administration. Perhaps some people on the fence will be comfortable judging the president on performance rather than on his demeanor. I’m sure some will never do so regardless of his accomplishments.

It’s time for the Trump administration and Democrats to end their petty squabbling. America needs more from its leaders and lawmakers. Everyone in Washington should have a more forward-thinking perspective.

Trump ought to end his obsession with Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Americans already know that they have done great damage to our country.

Obama’s ideological and insular governing perspectives are responsible, among other things, for the huge rift between socioeconomic groups in the nation and the drastic decline in the US’s reputation globally.

Class warfare that pits American against American has affected Congress to the point that it is unable to pass laws or balance budgets.

Internationally Obama left the Middle East in shambles, gave Iran the ability to build nuclear weapons, alienated Russia and allowed North Korea to build a nuclear arsenal that threatens its enemies existentially.

The Obama era is behind us, thankfully. With support of Congress Trump will be able to rectify his errors and missteps domestically and globally.

The Clinton dynasty has also ended. Bill and Hillary are now part of history. Regarding Hillary, her self-entitlement to office was a major cause of her downfall last year. She was unable to defeat Trump, a man with no government experience or even a shred of statesmanship.

Clinton was singlehandedly responsible for the devastation of the Democratic Party. Liberals in the country took ten steps backward politically as Clinton prosecuted one of the worst campaigns in history. Moreover her deceit and refusal to play by the same rules as other Americans contributed greatly to her downfall. Scandal after scandal has followed this person throughout her career. America is better off with the Clintons in retirement.

Donald Trump is not going to change. He is a divisive force in the country, not because of his agenda, but because of his horrible persona. It’s mindboggling that our president, so often, acts like a spoiled child if he does not get his way or someone criticizes him. His rise to power was one of the greatest mistakes in history.

Notwithstanding his moronic tweets and self-aggrandizing showboating, he wants to implement a sound list of ideas that would be beneficial to the country.

Tax reform, or what ever you want to call it, will likely spur the economy to some extent and be good for most taxpayers. Ironically affluent American will be paying more, especially in blue states because high state and local taxes are not deductible. The liberal press continually mischaracterizes this aspect of the law. It’s part of their fake news.

Trump’s actions in the Middle East are beneficial to the US and the world. We should be supporting our most important ally in the region, Israel. By siding with Saudi Arabia and other Sunni states, the US will be able to more effectively fight back against the despicable government in Iran, which is responsible for a great deal of turmoil in the region. It is building a bomb, abetting terror, aiding the Syrian government and supporting violence throughout the area.

The administration has decided to enlist Russia and China while still opposing them in many situations. It’s a brilliant yet simple approach that neither Obama nor former presidents were able to implement. The US, Russia and China want less terrorism and less tension in hotspots across the globe along with beneficial trade arrangements, as does the US.

Trump’s other agenda items will also benefit America. They include common sense immigration policies that protect our borders, more spending on defense, improvement of our infrastructure, less waste in government, less regulation, smaller government and more respect for our police forces.

Trump must end his obsession with the Russian investigation. It makes news every day because of Trump, not for any new revelations. Special Counsel Mueller is investigating, his actions and staff are suspect of bias against the Trump administration, but the president says there was no collusion. He must suffer through this political witch-hunt.

It’s time that Trump stayed focused on things and issues that will make America greater and not waste time or energy on inevitable and unproductive attacks by the opposition. Democrats are giving Republicans very little to be concerned with as we move towards the 2018 election.

The New York Times published a story on Friday that refuted a prediction I made in a blog post earlier in the week. I projected that the Senate, in spite of the recent loss in Alabama, would continue to be controlled by Republicans after the 2018 elections. The Times indicated that the chances Democrats would overtake Republicans in the Senate were looking more favorable every day.

By my count Democrats have 12 vulnerable seats going into the 2018 elections and 9 of them are in states that Trump carried in 2016. Of these 5 were states where the president won by 5 or more percentage points. These include McCaskill (MD), Tester (MT), Heitkamp (ND), Brown (OH) and Manchin (WV).

On the other side of the coin Clinton won Nevada by 2.4 percentage points. The Republican senator (Heller) would seem to be at risk.

Let’s assume Republicans win 3 of the 5 seats where Trump led by 5 or more percentage points and Democrats win Nevada. The current split in the Senate including the Republican loss in Alabama, is 51-49. After the 2018 elections, under a conservative scenario for Republicans, the split would be 53-47 for the GOP.

If Republicans win all 5 of the states where Trump defeated Clinton by 5 or more percentage points, the split would be 55-45.

The Times’ dream of a Democratic majority in the Senate is quite remote. Of course significant political turmoil could change the calculus dramatically. But short of an impeachment proceeding, which is unlikely because Republicans control the House, not much will change in the Senate in 2018.

It’s time to consider ways to end the debilitating hunt for relatively minor sexual abusers. The suggestion about to be made will be anathema to those among us who won’t rest until every single abuser is outed and punished. What Americans should consider is that the exhaustive hunt under way is going tear our country apart and divert us from other important issues.

Many bad things have happened to women over the years. Unfortunately we cannot turn back the clock or take a mulligan. What’s done is done. Yet the scope of the search for sexual offenders is getting wider every day. It’s possible that a huge swath of the male population of the country is guilty of major and minor offenses.

The statutes of limitations were in part enacted to prevent the litigation of crimes that are very old. As time passes minor offenses may seem more serious to victims. However the ability to adjudicate crimes of the past is hampered by fuzzy memory and a dearth of corroboration.

Today a comment by a woman about an incident one, two or three decades old could end a man’s career and destroy his family. The rule of law is being set aside as the court of public opinion embraces minor accusations. In this environment a woman may say, “he groped me in 1995,” and the accuser is fired from his job and ostracized.

Let me be clear. I am not suggesting that violent acts or serial abusers be protected or spared in any regard. The obvious example is Harvey Weinstein who has conducted a reign of terror over helpless women for decades. He’s getting what he deserves from the judicial system and from society.

But for less offensive acts including one-time minor abuses, why shouldn’t society forgive an forget? A principal objective should be to protect women prospectively. This is where our efforts should be concentrated. Crimes of any sort that happen from this moment on, minor or major, should be punished aggressively.

One expected counter point of this suggestion is that abused women would not find closure. I understand and respect this perspective. But it really does matter whether offenses are serious. If a man rubbed a woman’s shoulders, stole a kiss or told an inappropriate joke, should he feel the wrath of the legal system and be dismissed by his employer? There are some that will say yes.

I’m proposing that we continue to root out serious offenders and let minor offenses fade away over time. Let’s focus on the future safety of women. Men who are serial abusers and those who violently assaulted women should not be given a pass. This strategy will enable us to apply more energy towards protecting women in the future.

For the first time in 25 years Alabamans voted in a Democratic senator.  Democrats claim that the vote is part of  a growing backlash against Donald Trump. But really the outcome is a result of a perfect storm that included allegations of pedophilia directed at Roy Moore. The Republican establishment is actually relieved that Roy Moore lost.

Most talking heads have indicated that the winner, Doug Jones, is a lame duck even before he takes his seat in January. Deep down every informed politician knows that Jones will be obliterated in two years after he finishes Jeff Session’s term. Republicans will retain a slim majority in the Senate in spite of the defeat.

In 2018 25 Democrat senators are up for election, compared to 10 for Republicans. It is highly likely that the GOP will make significant gains in the midterm elections .

This takes us back to the Trump impact. Soon tax reform will be enacted, the first significant legislative victory for the administration. Next on the agenda will be border legislation, which will be bolstered by recent terrorist attacks,  After that the crumbling infrastructure in the US will be addressed, which both parties support. Trump believes he will be successful with both of these issues.

The performance of the economy should be a significant boost to Trump’s efforts to implement his agenda. A higher stock market and more growth will positively impact voters.

Of course the sexual abuse revolution could hurt the president especially if new revelations surface about him. The current storm about Trump is just a rehash of old allegations, which voters arose before the presidential election.

Another dark cloud is the Mueller investigation. Additional indictments of Trump minions could  impact the political landscape. It appears that Americans are growing tired of the witch hunt by the special prosecutor.

Democrats are celebrating the Jones victory. They are hoping it is a sign of a new move to the left by voters, but if one examines relevant details about the congressional races, this is not likely to happen. The Democratic Party has one issue- Donald Trump. They have done nothing to inspire voters to support their candidates.

What if Trump implements tax reform, resulting in huge tickle down benefits to the middle class and greater economic growth?

What if Trump keeps relentless pressure on North Korea and it leads to regime change followed by a dismantlement of the country’s nuclear program?

What if Trump’s sanctions against Iran ultimately result in a much more docile regime without weapons of mass destruction?

What if Trump bankrupts Russia and Putin falls out of power?

What if Trump’s wall on the border of Mexico dramatically decreases the number of illegal aliens entering the US?

What It Trump abrogates Obamacare and the reformed medical system is less expensive for the federal government and insured Americans?

What if Trump is able to make reasonable changes to other entitlements such as Medicare and Social Security that are straining our financial system?

What if Trump encourages Congress to spend more money more wisely on defense so that the US can re-assume its leadership role throughout the world?

What if Trump  assists the UK economically and helps it end the Brexit crisis?

What if Trump finds a path to peace in the Israeli/Palestinian crisis?

What if Trump negotiates the forgiveness of a large amount of student debt?

What if Trump implements a plan to revitalize our country’s infrastructure?

What if Trump makes peace between African Americans and the police?

What if Trump offers jobs to all able-bodied welfare recipients?

What if Trump is able to end the animosity between Republicans and Democrats?

What if Trump spearheads and implements new laws that protect women against sexual abuse?

Would you be able to look past Trump’s terrible personality traits if he was able to accomplish a number of these things for America?

Is performance the most important assessment of our president? Or will America be shortsighted and not give its presidents a chance to prove themselves because of extraneous issues and politics?

The wave of sexual harassment accusations is growing every day. Very successful, powerful and gifted men are being fired by employers and abandoned by their sponsors.

The resignation of Sen. Al Franken was a landmark event. Led by Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, female senators demanded Franken give up his seat because of a series of abuse allegations. Soon after many other senators jumped on the bandwagon. Franken relented but said that not every accusation against him was true. He also took parting shots at Roy Moore, the Alabama senatorial candidate accused of pedophilia, and Donald Trump. Franken thinks he has been judged unfairly compared to these men.

Many Americans are having substantive conversations about the relationship between men and women, which have led to countless episodes of brutality directed at females since the beginning of time. It is refreshing that women and men are prepared to change the ways of the past.

The problem is how should America deal with previous and future acts of sexual harassment in the country that have and will come to light?

The first thing that must be done is to clearly identify and categorize the various types of aberrant behavior affiliated with sexual harassment. Just like murder, which has different levels of severity (manslaughter versus premeditated murder), our lawmakers must differentiate between acts of violence against women. For instance, “no touch” crimes might be classified as less of an offense than “touch” crimes. If a man curses or tells a dirty joke, it should be a much lesser infraction than groping or assault.

In effect lawmakers must take the time to define the crimes and attach penalties commensurate with their severity. For sure this will take a great deal of effort, but it is the fair thing to do.

Corporations must implement systems to deal with complaints. Simply, anything involving touching would fall into the serious acts category and result in immediate dismissal. Other activities that make fellow employees uncomfortable would receive a warning and then dismissal for a second offense.

A major consideration is how to deal with crimes of the past versus crimes of the future. Some past accusations date back years and even decades. They may be difficult to prove and not be punishable by law enforcement because of statutes of limitation. Every case needs to be considered individually if an employer wants to take action without support of law enforcement.

Should a man lose his job for acts that are decades old (like Roy Moore)? Yes, if it can be proven with reasonable certainty that they occurred. It is highly likely that Moore won’t be indicted for these alleged crimes, but the Senate could ostracize him if he wins the election, and his accusers could sue him for damages.

For Harvey Weinstein the system has responded with great ire. He was ousted from the company he owns, blackballed by former Hollywood colleagues, ostracized by companies he did business with and branded a pariah by the entire entertainment industry. Moreover the police are investigating his recent actions, and he may be indicted at some point.

Current events regarding sexual abuse are historic. There are few crimes older than this offense. The bravery of the women who have gone public should be lauded just as Time Magazine has done. But are there potential backlashes that might occur?

Will men respond by covertly employing fewer women? Will men begin to resent the tidal wave of accusations? Will relatively insignificant misdeeds be blown out of proportion and result in unfair treatment of the accused? Will the rule of law be ignored by society? For sure this story has only just begun.

And finally how many more successful men will be branded sexual abusers? Will their life’s work be minimized because of their over active libidos? Will an artist’s great accomplishments be overwhelmed by sexual misbehavior?

Regardless I believe creative and successful people who commit crimes of any kind should feel the full fury of our society.