By Sal Bommarito
As one considers the repercussions of the ISIS war, it is impossible not to be pessimistic about the aftermath of the confrontation. ISIS has deeply affected the Middle East and is destabilizing Arab countries.
The following is a list of potential problems that seem more plausible with every passing day.
-Iran will try to use the ISIS imbroglio to further its nuclear aspirations. If ISIS proves difficult to defeat or to rein in, the U.S. may decide to ask Iran for military and diplomatic assistance. Undoubtedly, the quid pro quo for Iranian support will be an easing of restrictions on the production of material needed to build a nuclear weapon and a rescission of economic sanctions. The development of a nuclear capability by Iran would be a serious existential threat to both Israel and Sunni states.
-Saudi Arabia is in grave danger from two perspectives. First, ISIS destabilization of the region may spread to Saudi Arabia and threaten the monarchy. Second, U.S. collaboration with Iran will threaten Saudi leaders.
-If the ISIS threat is eliminated or tempered, Iraq will immediately resume its civil war pitting the entrenched Shiites against disenfranchised Sunnis. The U.S. will have no choice but to increase support of the Iraqi government thereby replaying the saga of the past decade.
-Although Israel is experiencing a respite from never ending threats by Arab nations, it is only temporary. The violence in the region will eventually cause the tension and conflict in Israel to ramp up. Palestinian terrorists will be emboldened by ISIS fighters.
-President Assad of Syria will remain in power for the foreseeable future. As we know, his government is oppressive and supportive of numerous terrorist groups. When the ISIS threat to his regime ebbs, he will take aim at his opposition in a cruel and violent manner.
-Related to the previous issue is the growing number of refugees that are pouring into countries that neighbor Syria, particularly Turkey and Jordan. The latter will not be able to accommodate the multitudes much further. Serious humanitarian issues will arise.
-Recruitment of ISIS supporters continues to grow worldwide. Revolution and terror is in the air. Nations across the globe will be facing increased “lone wolf” attacks as we have seen recently.
-It is implausible that the supply of fossil fuel will not be affected by the conflict in the Middle East.