By Sal Bommarito

As one considers the repercussions of the ISIS war, it is impossible not to be pessimistic about the aftermath of the confrontation. ISIS has deeply affected the Middle East and is destabilizing Arab countries.

The following is a list of potential problems that seem more plausible with every passing day.

-Iran will try to use the ISIS imbroglio to further its nuclear aspirations. If ISIS proves difficult to defeat or to rein in, the U.S. may decide to ask Iran for military and diplomatic assistance. Undoubtedly, the quid pro quo for Iranian support will be an easing of restrictions on the production of material needed to build a nuclear weapon and a rescission of economic sanctions. The development of a nuclear capability by Iran would be a serious existential threat to both Israel and Sunni states.

-Saudi Arabia is in grave danger from two perspectives. First, ISIS destabilization of the region may spread to Saudi Arabia and threaten the monarchy. Second, U.S. collaboration with Iran will threaten Saudi leaders.

-If the ISIS threat is eliminated or tempered, Iraq will immediately resume its civil war pitting the entrenched Shiites against disenfranchised Sunnis. The U.S. will have no choice but to increase support of the Iraqi government thereby replaying the saga of the past decade.

-Although Israel is experiencing a respite from never ending threats by Arab nations, it is only temporary. The violence in the region will eventually cause the tension and conflict in Israel to ramp up. Palestinian terrorists will be emboldened by ISIS fighters.

-President Assad of Syria will remain in power for the foreseeable future. As we know, his government is oppressive and supportive of numerous terrorist groups. When the ISIS threat to his regime ebbs, he will take aim at his opposition in a cruel and violent manner.

-Related to the previous issue is the growing number of refugees that are pouring into countries that neighbor Syria, particularly Turkey and Jordan. The latter will not be able to accommodate the multitudes much further. Serious humanitarian issues will arise.

-Recruitment of ISIS supporters continues to grow worldwide. Revolution and terror is in the air. Nations across the globe will be facing increased “lone wolf” attacks as we have seen recently.

-It is implausible that the supply of fossil fuel will not be affected by the conflict in the Middle East.

By Sal Bommarito

ISIS continues to wreak havoc in Iraq and Syria. The question is what does ISIS want? Here are several possibilities.

ISIS hopes to establish a new theocracy. Such an objective necessitates land, a government and recognition by other countries. This contingency is unlikely. Why would any country in the region be willingly cede territory to ISIS?

ISIS is interested in killing or converting Arabs who are not Sunnis. This ideological angle is reminiscent of the 11th Century Crusades, during which marauding Catholics foisted their religious beliefs on others. In the Middle East, the struggle between Sunni and Shiite has been in play for centuries. It does not appear that ISIS is finding many converts among those conquered. In fact, most Sunnis and even the original Al Qaeda organization object to ISIS’ radical perspectives.

ISIS wants to destabilize the region. So far the terrorists have successfully disrupted Iraq and Syria and initiated a war that has involved countries from around the world. There are few, if any, nations in the Middle East that side with ISIS, including Sunni dominated regimes. In fact, most Arab countries decry ISIS because they fear destabilization and revolution will impact their governments.

ISIS is a band of disgruntled nomads from many places whose solidarity is their unhappiness. They are like a large group of suicide bombers, prepared to fight and die in the name of God. A cult-like, brainwashed mentality may have overcome the members, and the only way to stop them is to exterminate them.

ISIs is a group of bandits who kill, steal, rape and pillage, land pirates if you will. They are using radical Islam ideology to form a cohesive bond between members.

ISIS is interested in destroying and/or terrorizing western nations. The operations in Iraq and Syria could be the beginning of a mission that will inspire other Muslims to assault western societies. This form of fanaticism would be directed more towards killing non-Arabs.

An interesting thought amid all the beheadings, killing, refugees and destabilization is how the leaders of ISIS would respond to being asked what would encourage them to end their reign of terror and make peace.