It’s time to start thinking about mid-term elections. Will Republicans be able to retain their majority in both houses, or will Democrats win enough seats to change the political landscape?

Here are some of the most important issues relating to the impending elections ten months from now.

Senate Democrats have several candidates running for reelection in states carried by Donald Trump in 2016. In an earlier post I indicated the following: “By my count Democrats have 12 vulnerable seats going into the 2018 elections and 9 of them are in states that Trump carried in 2016. Of these 5 were states where the president won by 5 or more percentage points. These include McCaskill (MD), Tester (MT), Heitkamp (ND), Brown (OH) and Manchin (WV).”

Democrats must win most of these seats to even have a chance to change the current 51-49 split in the Senate. Odds are that Republicans will keep their majority.

Up to this point fifty-five members of the House are retiring this year, 38 Republicans and 17 Democrats. The latest is Trey Gowdy (R-SC), a popular and effective member of the Republican caucus. The impact of these retirements depends upon whether the districts involved are prone to change parties. Democrats would need a net gain of 24 seats to obtain control. This number seems remote.

Many opponents and supporters of President Trump frequently cite his persona as his greatest vulnerability. The question is whether Trump’s personality will impact the 2018 elections. Given that the president’s base is still strong because he has been keeping his campaign promises, or trying to do so, annoying presidential tweets and his demeanor will not materially hurt Republicans in state and local elections.

If Trump is unable to push through more legislation, such as immigration reform and new infrastructure projects, it could cost his congressional allies votes. But this contingency should be offset by Democratic obstruction. Trump knows this and will attempt to pass the blame of legislative paralysis to his congressional opponents.

The immigration controversy is going to hurt Democrats more than Republicans. Claims of xenophobia carry more weight on the two coasts. Voters in the heartland will not be swayed by Democratic focus on illegal migrants, as opposed to the needs of average Americans.

Trump has made a proposal to save DACA immigrants that he believes is fair. The opposition will disagree and obstruct. Without a credible alternative plan Democrats are going to be hurt severely by this specific issue.

Similarly Trump is moving forward with an infrastructure proposal of $1.5 trillion. This amount is less than what the nation needs to refurbish its crumbling roads and bridges, but government participation could excite private investors and result in far more new projects and employment opportunities. So far there are no details and debt hawks are concerned about the growing national deficit. Additionally higher expected interest rates could impact this monumental effort.

And there is the economy (stupid!). Trump is “trumpeting” economic growth at every opportunity. Although he is not entirely responsible for gains to this point, presidents usually get credit for good times. When Americans take note of more money in their pay, higher wages, more employment and increases in pensions and 401Ks, they are going to reward Republicans. More cash in the pockets of voters may become the most important political factor in 2018.

Democrats are dreaming if they think their obstruction and sour faces (during the State of the Union Address) are going to win them votes. If liberals don’t formulate alternatives to Trump’s gambits they will have a very bad November. By the way, I firmly think that all the success I am predicting for 2018 will not help Trump win his own primary election in 2020, if he chooses to run at all.

One qualification. Terrorism, North Korean craziness, Iran subterfuge and other geopolitical activity could change everything.

 

 

The debate about Dreamers has overwhelmed Washington. Democrats are creating more controversy every day by looking for reasons to bad-mouth any initiatives by President Trump. Instead of focusing on Trump’s rhetoric and what may be his inner most feelings about illegal aliens, liberals should just do a deal and protect these people.

The fact is Trump is offering to protect 1.8 million Dreamers, up from 800 thousand a few weeks ago. If Democrats want to make points with their liberal base, they should rally around this development alone.

Trump also proposed a 12-year path to citizenship. No one has even attempted to address the back end of the Dreamer problem, but the president has done so. The opposition could negotiate aspects of this term of the deal, but it is a great starting point.

The other aspects of Trump’s proposal are critical. The US must find a way to integrate illegals into our society. It is unreasonable to think that authorities can round up 10 million people and send them back to their countries of origin. But ensuring the problem does not grow is shear stupidity.

The  wall will help stop future growth of the illegal population. When you compare a 10, 20 or 30 billion dollar price tag to the cost of feeding and caring for 5 million more illegals (and their future offspring), the cost of the wall appears to be a good investment.

Eliminating the lottery and family migration are sensible additions to good immigration reform if keeping undesirables out is a priority. Bringing in more immigrants into the country using the lottery without strong vetting is a recipe for disaster.

Migration of families sounds like a nice thing to do, but it should not be a priority for the US. Our goal should be focused on border control not open borders. Illegals have no right to enter our country unless our government gives it to them.

It’s easy to see where this controversy is heading. Democrats will use it to denigrate Trump. If the president offered amnesty to all 10 million illegals Democrats would find fault. They want to obtain more seats in Congress and are politicizing immigration to do so.

Trump’s inarticulate rhetoric is not productive, nor is it really that important. Whether he calls the group Dreamers or something else is irrelevant if he gives Dreamers a clear path to citizenship.

Democrats, negotiate a deal and protect this group before a deal becomes impossible. If you are unreasonable and shut down the government, you will pay in November 2018 and in November 2020.