My prediction of a Putin bluff regarding the Ukraine is not looking good at this moment. The power crazed leader of Russia is determined to make trouble in the Baltic countries, while attempting to re-assimilate the former SSRs. NATO guarantees should mitigate this latter possibility.
Putin’s gambit makes no sense from any perspective. Politically, he has alienated most of the civilized world. Putin’s invasion is taking us back to the years before World War II when Hitler overran European nations at his leisure in violation of international law. Russia has lined up thousands of tanks and heavy artillery along its border with Ukraine. One might ask why is this outrageous action important to Russia? Is it ego, political, financial? It’s difficult to see the upside of Putin’s erratic behavior.
It’s possible that Russia will end hostilities after re-assuming Ukraine territory that has strong Russian ties in the eastern part of the country, an annexation à la Crimea. But, Putin has amassed thousands of troops close to Kiev in a likely preparation to assault the capital.
Russia is temporally riding high because of the soaring prices of oil and gas. This is a passing moment and prices will decrease moving forward as producers drill more. Liberal efforts in the United States to decrease oil and gas production will reverse as producers are attracted to higher fossil fuel prices and the US changes its policies to avoid yet another oil crisis.
When prices fall, Russia’s windfall cash flow will subside, and the country will be ready for bankruptcy once again. This will be the beginning of the end of the Putin regime.
You would think the crazed leader of Russia would be saving for a rainy day. No. Instead he is mortgaging the future of his country by mobilizing and moving tanks, troops and armaments to the Balkans. The impending economic disaster will become a political disaster for the current leaders of Russia.
And what about the US reaction to Russia’s aggression? It was pathetic. Our country is virtually leaderless. Nickel and dime sanctions don’t threaten self-proclaimed conquerors like Putin. We should be going all in and doing everything possible to up the costs of Putin’s strategy. Decreasing defense spending is not such a good idea when there are megalomaniacs at play throughout the world.
Every US sanction should be directed at Russia’s cash reserves. We should make it difficult for Russia to sell oil and gas and move military assets from place to place. We should completely shut down Russia’s ability to pay for and receive payments for everything they do internationally. And we should encourage our allies to follow suit.
Putin is going to spend billions overrunning the Ukraine. What will he get in return? Tell me, because I can’t think of anything except a bad reputation. Russia is ripe for a change in its leadership.
The same is true of American leadership. We have the wrong person in the White House to combat this dangerous situation.